![]() Patrick Mahomes comes in second in this projection, too, with 38 TD strikes. If Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Julio Jones and Russell Gage can all get healthy at the same time, Tampa will have the highest win-share value at a position group in my models in at least five seasons. Brady's O-line health will matter here - his 2.2 sack rate last season was the third-lowest for a QB in any season since 2016, per NGS - so the Ryan Jensen injury definitely hurts the veteran QB, who's turning 45 this week. Not to mention, Brady finished second in MVP voting last season. There are a ton of excellent QBs in the AFC, so it'll be quite hard to stand out over there. ![]() I can make a strong case for NFC quarterbacks with prolific projections being good preseason MVP choices. (Note: Given the Chargers' defensive improvements this offseason, Herbert shouldn't need to eclipse 5,000 yards passing again.) ![]() Tom Brady, Derek Carr and Justin Herbert round out the top five. And on that front, Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase just led the league with 11 touchdown connections on passes of 10-plus air yards - the highest single-season total of the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016).īurrow narrowly edges out Patrick Mahomes in this projection. ![]() More time to throw equals more yards on deep passes. That said, the third-year signal-caller shouldn't face as much heat in 2022, thus exposing him to fewer hits and more higher-probability passing situations. According to Next Gen Stats, Burrow was the league's best quarterback under pressure when it came to yards per attempt (9.7) and completion percentage (64.3), and he owned the second-best completion percentage over expected (+8.7) in this area. This number is primarily driven by the Bengals' improved offensive line, which I rank as the ninth-best unit (up from 25th at the end of 2021), along with a very difficult schedule that includes a bevy of potential game scripts with high passing volume. ![]()
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